Oneonta State Forecasting Contest

Oneonta forecasting has ended for the Fall 2014 semester

Thanks to all those who participated.

Week 12 (final) results are posted below.

Congratulations to this semester's winner: David Loveless.

(David, the next time you are in Oneonta, remind Dr. Blechman and collect your prize)

To read the rules of the contest, click here.

If you have a problem or need information, click here to send e-mail to Dr. Blechman

         
Images by Jeff Bucchino, the "Wizard of Draws" 

Enter your forecasts with the "Enter Forecast" button below
        
    

Here are some links you might find helpful in making your forecast:

Surface maps from the WPC
  Upper Air images from NCAR-RAP
Satellite images from NCAR-RAP
National Radar mosaic from the NWS (click to zoom to a station)
NCEP model forecast maps
Unisys Weather
Surface progs from WPC

College of DuPage NeXt Generation Weather Lab
Eta, GFS, NGM mos forecasts for BGM
Texas A&M Weather Interface (numerical guidance - KBGM is our closest station)
Zone forecast for Oneonta from BGM NWS
Binghamton National Weather Service office

To enter a forecast, type your usercode and click the enter button:

UserCode:



If you have trouble entering your forecast, send your forecast via e-mail to Dr. Blechman

Important: You must be registered in the contest for it to recognize you.

To join the contest and get a usercode, see or e-mail Dr. Blechman


Click here to go to the Oneonta Meteorology Homepage


Results
(note:  CONSENSUS is the average of the best and worst error points, GUIDANCE is the NWS forecast from approx. 16Z)


  ONEONTA STATE FORECASTING CONTEST

STANDINGS FOR WEEK 12 FINAL OVERALL STANDINGS

PLACE NAME POINTS PLACE NAME POINTS


1 Loveless 71 GOLD MEDAL 1 Loveless 768
2 GUIDANCE 73 SILVER MEDAL 2 Blechman 774
3 Blechman 77 BRONZE MEDAL 3 Linek 841
4 Young 85 4 GUIDANCE 877
5 Linek 95 5 Young 929
6 Chapman 96 6 Morrill 947
7 Morrill 99 7 MakowerBrown 1012
8 MakowerBrown 103 8 Chapman 1065
9 Walker 110 9 Walker 1140
10 Gaynor 116 10 Gaynor 1158
11 CONSENSUS 120 11 Juliano 1240
12 Juliano 129 12 Galligan 1248
13 Galligan 142 13 CONSENSUS 1262
14 Lyakhov 156 14 Byrnes 1352
15 Byrnes 169 15 Lyakhov 1434
15 Visnosky 169 16 Visnosky 1470
15 Graham 169 17 Graham 1552
15 Baum 169 18 Baum 1605
15 Scully 169 19 Scully 1695
15 Dubbs 169 20 Dubbs 1736
15 Berchoff 169 21 Berchoff 1767
15 PERSISTENCE 169 22 PERSISTENCE 1900


VERIFICATIONS:
PERSISTENCE DAY 1 DAY 2 DAY 3 DAY 4 DAY 5

46 21 0 42 22 3 42 28 1 31 18 0 40 21 4 37 22 4
42 28 1 31 18 0 40 21 4 37 22 4 29 15 0





SCORING:
ONE (1) POINT IS ASSIGNED FOR EACH DEGREE OF TEMPERATURE ERROR.
THREE (3) POINTS ARE ASSIGNED FOR EACH PRECIPITATION CATEGORY ERROR.
999 INDICATES NO FORECAST WAS MADE AND A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WAS ASSIGNED.



NAME DAY 1 DAY 2 DAY 3 DAY 4 DAY 5

FORECASTER: Loveless
24HR FCST: 34 21 2 45 25 0 32 20 0 39 22 3 37 19 3
ERROR PTS: 8 1 3 3 3 3 1 2 0 1 1 3 0 3 3

48HR FCST: 45 27 0 31 20 0 37 22 2 45 23 3 27 18 0
ERROR PTS: 3 1 3 0 2 0 3 1 6 8 1 3 2 3 0


FORECASTER: Blechman
24HR FCST: 36 19 3 44 27 0 33 21 0 36 24 3 42 23 4
ERROR PTS: 6 3 0 2 1 3 2 3 0 4 3 3 5 1 0

48HR FCST: 44 27 0 33 24 0 36 24 2 44 25 4 30 18 0
ERROR PTS: 2 1 3 2 6 0 4 3 6 7 3 0 1 3 0


FORECASTER: Linek
24HR FCST: 32 27 2 44 26 2 34 20 0 999 999 999 39 21 2
ERROR PTS: 10 5 3 2 2 3 3 2 0 9 3 12 2 1 6

48HR FCST: 43 26 1 33 22 0 36 29 2 999 999 999 30 15 0
ERROR PTS: 1 2 0 2 4 0 4 8 6 3 1 0 1 0 0


FORECASTER: GUIDANCE
24HR FCST: 30 18 2 41 25 1 31 21 0 39 20 3 40 22 4
ERROR PTS: 12 4 3 1 3 0 0 3 0 1 1 3 3 0 0

48HR FCST: 43 29 1 34 21 0 33 23 1 41 23 4 31 21 0
ERROR PTS: 1 1 0 3 3 0 7 2 9 4 1 0 2 6 0


FORECASTER: Young
24HR FCST: 33 22 2 45 26 0 34 22 0 36 24 3 39 22 3
ERROR PTS: 9 0 3 3 2 3 3 4 0 4 3 3 2 0 3

48HR FCST: 44 28 0 33 23 0 36 24 1 42 25 3 32 16 0
ERROR PTS: 2 0 3 2 5 0 4 3 9 5 3 3 3 1 0


FORECASTER: Morrill
24HR FCST: 33 20 2 42 27 0 34 22 0 37 21 3 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 9 2 3 0 1 3 3 4 0 3 0 3 3 1 0

48HR FCST: 43 30 1 34 23 0 36 26 1 44 23 4 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 1 2 0 3 5 0 4 5 9 7 1 0 8 7 12


FORECASTER: MakowerBrown
24HR FCST: 31 29 3 42 24 2 32 19 0 999 999 999 37 19 2
ERROR PTS: 11 7 0 0 4 3 1 1 0 9 3 12 0 3 6

48HR FCST: 42 27 3 32 20 0 35 32 1 999 999 999 27 17 0
ERROR PTS: 0 1 6 1 2 0 5 11 9 3 1 0 2 2 0


FORECASTER: Chapman
24HR FCST: 35 23 0 43 29 1 34 23 0 41 23 3 41 24 3
ERROR PTS: 7 1 9 1 1 0 3 5 0 1 2 3 4 2 3

48HR FCST: 44 29 1 38 23 1 38 27 1 41 26 4 33 22 0
ERROR PTS: 2 1 0 7 5 3 2 6 9 4 4 0 4 7 0


FORECASTER: Walker
24HR FCST: 31 25 2 41 25 2 34 20 0 37 33 3 40 25 3
ERROR PTS: 11 3 3 1 3 3 3 2 0 3 12 3 3 3 3

48HR FCST: 41 29 2 33 20 0 35 32 1 44 25 3 32 19 0
ERROR PTS: 1 1 3 2 2 0 5 11 9 7 3 3 3 4 0


FORECASTER: Gaynor
24HR FCST: 30 21 1 41 30 2 35 24 0 999 999 999 39 25 4
ERROR PTS: 12 1 6 1 2 3 4 6 0 9 3 12 2 3 0

48HR FCST: 44 30 2 37 24 0 37 26 1 999 999 999 33 23 0
ERROR PTS: 2 2 3 6 6 0 3 5 9 3 1 0 4 8 0


FORECASTER: Juliano
24HR FCST: 32 20 0 42 32 2 32 25 0 35 19 0 38 31 2
ERROR PTS: 10 2 9 0 4 3 1 7 0 5 2 12 1 9 6

48HR FCST: 41 31 2 32 23 0 35 20 0 42 33 2 28 19 0
ERROR PTS: 1 3 3 1 5 0 5 1 12 5 11 6 1 4 0


FORECASTER: Galligan
24HR FCST: 999 999 999 44 25 1 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 4 1 9 2 3 0 11 10 3 9 3 12 3 1 0

48HR FCST: 999 999 999 33 20 0 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 0 6 6 2 2 0 9 3 12 3 1 0 8 7 12


FORECASTER: Byrnes
24HR FCST: 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 4 1 9 0 6 6 11 10 3 9 3 12 3 1 0

48HR FCST: 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 0 6 6 11 10 3 9 3 12 3 1 0 8 7 12


FORECASTER: Lyakhov
24HR FCST: 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 36 18 1
ERROR PTS: 4 1 9 0 6 6 11 10 3 9 3 12 1 4 9

48HR FCST: 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 27 17 0
ERROR PTS: 0 6 6 11 10 3 9 3 12 3 1 0 2 2 0


FORECASTER: Visnosky
24HR FCST: 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 4 1 9 0 6 6 11 10 3 9 3 12 3 1 0

48HR FCST: 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 0 6 6 11 10 3 9 3 12 3 1 0 8 7 12


FORECASTER: Graham
24HR FCST: 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 4 1 9 0 6 6 11 10 3 9 3 12 3 1 0

48HR FCST: 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 0 6 6 11 10 3 9 3 12 3 1 0 8 7 12


FORECASTER: Baum
24HR FCST: 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 4 1 9 0 6 6 11 10 3 9 3 12 3 1 0

48HR FCST: 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 0 6 6 11 10 3 9 3 12 3 1 0 8 7 12


FORECASTER: Scully
24HR FCST: 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 4 1 9 0 6 6 11 10 3 9 3 12 3 1 0

48HR FCST: 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 0 6 6 11 10 3 9 3 12 3 1 0 8 7 12


FORECASTER: Dubbs
24HR FCST: 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 4 1 9 0 6 6 11 10 3 9 3 12 3 1 0

48HR FCST: 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 0 6 6 11 10 3 9 3 12 3 1 0 8 7 12


FORECASTER: Berchoff
24HR FCST: 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 4 1 9 0 6 6 11 10 3 9 3 12 3 1 0

48HR FCST: 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 0 6 6 11 10 3 9 3 12 3 1 0 8 7 12


FORECASTER: PERSISTENCE
24HR FCST: 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 4 1 9 0 6 6 11 10 3 9 3 12 3 1 0

48HR FCST: 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 0 6 6 11 10 3 9 3 12 3 1 0 8 7 12