Oneonta State Forecasting Contest

 Week 3 results are posted below.


Punxsutawney Phil and friend, 2012

Watch video of the 2015 Ceremony Here

Here's the NE visible satellite at 1245Z (about 15 mins after Phil's prediction)

Did you know that NYC has its own groundhog, Staten Island Chuck?  Last year Mayor de Blasio dropped the groundhog and he died!  

But it was not Chuck that died.  This is a twisted tale.  Read the expose' here.


To read the rules of the contest, click here.

If you have a problem or need information, click here to send e-mail to Dr. Blechman

         
Images by Jeff Bucchino, the "Wizard of Draws" 

Enter your forecasts with the "Enter Forecast" button below
        
    

Here are some links you might find helpful in making your forecast:

Surface maps from the WPC
  Upper Air images from NCAR-RAP
Satellite images from NCAR-RAP
National Radar mosaic from the NWS (click to zoom to a station)
NCEP model forecast maps
Unisys Weather
Surface progs from WPC

College of DuPage NeXt Generation Weather Lab
Eta, GFS, NGM mos forecasts for BGM
Texas A&M Weather Interface (numerical guidance - KBGM is our closest station)
Zone forecast for Oneonta from BGM NWS
Binghamton National Weather Service office

To enter a forecast, type your usercode and click the enter button:

UserCode:



If you have trouble entering your forecast, send your forecast via e-mail to Dr. Blechman

Important: You must be registered in the contest for it to recognize you.

To join the contest and get a usercode, see or e-mail Dr. Blechman


Click here to go to the Oneonta Meteorology Homepage


(note:  CONSENSUS is the average of the best and worst error points, GUIDANCE is the NWS forecast from approx. 16Z)


  ONEONTA STATE FORECASTING CONTEST

STANDINGS FOR WEEK 3 OVERALL STANDINGS

PLACE NAME POINTS PLACE NAME POINTS


1 Morrill 84 GOLD MEDAL 1 Blechman 243
2 Obee 95 SILVER MEDAL 2 Obee 269
3 Blechman 97 BRONZE MEDAL 3 Morrill 288
3 Walker 97 BRONZE MEDAL 4 Chapman 328
5 Chapman 109 5 GUIDANCE 331
6 Loveless 112 6 Loveless 340
7 GUIDANCE 130 7 Walker 392
8 Young 138 8 Young 398
9 CONSENSUS 140 9 CONSENSUS 425
10 Makower-Brown 160 10 Makower-Brown 426
11 Juliano 174 11 Juliano 466
12 Murphy 186 12 Constantino 512
13 Constantino 196 13 Murphy 547
13 Scully 196 14 Scully 621
13 PERSISTENCE 196 15 PERSISTENCE 623


VERIFICATIONS:
PERSISTENCE DAY 1 DAY 2 DAY 3 DAY 4 DAY 5

8 -7 1 23 -5 0 26 0 2 12 -7 1 12 -6 0 23 12 2
26 0 2 12 -7 1 12 -6 0 23 12 2 35 8 0





SCORING:
ONE (1) POINT IS ASSIGNED FOR EACH DEGREE OF TEMPERATURE ERROR.
THREE (3) POINTS ARE ASSIGNED FOR EACH PRECIPITATION CATEGORY ERROR.
999 INDICATES NO FORECAST WAS MADE AND A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WAS ASSIGNED.



NAME DAY 1 DAY 2 DAY 3 DAY 4 DAY 5

FORECASTER: Blechman
24HR FCST: 18 4 0 23 0 2 8 -8 1 9 -7 0 29 2 3
ERROR PTS: 5 9 0 3 0 0 4 1 0 3 1 0 6 10 3

48HR FCST: 20 0 1 8 -8 1 9 -5 0 29 2 2 30 -2 1
ERROR PTS: 6 0 3 4 1 0 3 1 0 6 10 0 5 10 3


FORECASTER: Obee
24HR FCST: 18 2 0 22 -1 2 6 -7 2 8 -7 0 26 7 3
ERROR PTS: 5 7 0 4 1 0 6 0 3 4 1 0 3 5 3

48HR FCST: 20 -1 2 7 -8 2 9 -8 0 29 0 2 32 0 1
ERROR PTS: 6 1 0 5 1 3 3 2 0 6 12 0 3 8 3


FORECASTER: Morrill
24HR FCST: 19 -1 0 23 1 2 8 -4 2 8 -5 0 25 8 3
ERROR PTS: 4 4 0 3 1 0 4 3 3 4 1 0 2 4 3

48HR FCST: 22 0 2 7 -4 2 8 -5 0 27 -4 2 33 5 1
ERROR PTS: 4 0 0 5 3 3 4 1 0 4 16 0 2 3 3


FORECASTER: Chapman
24HR FCST: 999 999 999 21 2 2 5 -8 1 5 -8 0 22 5 2
ERROR PTS: 15 2 3 5 2 0 7 1 0 7 2 0 1 7 0

48HR FCST: 999 999 999 5 -9 1 8 -6 0 21 1 2 28 4 2
ERROR PTS: 3 5 6 7 2 0 4 0 0 2 11 0 7 4 6


FORECASTER: GUIDANCE
24HR FCST: 17 5 0 22 0 2 5 -9 2 5 -9 0 27 1 3
ERROR PTS: 6 10 0 4 0 0 7 2 3 7 3 0 4 11 3

48HR FCST: 19 -3 2 4 -9 1 6 -8 0 30 -6 2 31 1 2
ERROR PTS: 7 3 0 8 2 0 6 2 0 7 18 0 4 7 6


FORECASTER: Loveless
24HR FCST: 18 2 0 21 2 1 7 -4 0 7 -4 0 23 -6 2
ERROR PTS: 5 7 0 5 2 3 5 3 3 5 2 0 0 18 0

48HR FCST: 19 1 1 7 -5 0 7 -5 0 23 -3 1 30 4 0
ERROR PTS: 7 1 3 5 2 3 5 1 0 0 15 3 5 4 0


FORECASTER: Walker
24HR FCST: 15 5 0 20 0 1 5 -5 2 5 -5 0 25 15 2
ERROR PTS: 8 10 0 6 0 3 7 2 3 7 1 0 2 3 0

48HR FCST: 20 0 0 5 -5 1 5 -5 0 25 12 2 30 5 2
ERROR PTS: 6 0 6 7 2 0 7 1 0 2 0 0 5 3 6


FORECASTER: Young
24HR FCST: 16 2 0 20 2 1 999 999 999 999 999 999 22 6 3
ERROR PTS: 7 7 0 6 2 3 14 7 3 0 1 3 1 6 3

48HR FCST: 18 2 1 6 -6 2 999 999 999 999 999 999 30 3 1
ERROR PTS: 8 2 3 6 1 3 0 1 3 11 18 6 5 5 3


FORECASTER: Makower-Brown
24HR FCST: 16 2 0 20 -3 2 5 -7 3 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 7 7 0 6 3 0 7 0 6 0 1 3 11 18 6

48HR FCST: 19 -2 1 4 -7 1 6 -8 0 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 7 2 3 8 0 0 6 2 0 11 18 6 12 4 6


FORECASTER: Juliano
24HR FCST: 27 2 0 20 6 0 6 6 1 3 -8 1 29 -5 0
ERROR PTS: 4 7 0 6 6 6 6 13 0 9 2 3 6 17 6

48HR FCST: 21 -2 0 4 2 2 5 -7 1 21 2 0 31 19 2
ERROR PTS: 5 2 6 8 9 3 7 1 3 2 10 6 4 11 6


FORECASTER: Constantino
24HR FCST: 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 15 2 3 3 5 6 14 7 3 0 1 3 11 18 6

48HR FCST: 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 3 5 6 14 7 3 0 1 3 11 18 6 12 4 6


FORECASTER: Murphy
24HR FCST: 16 0 0 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 7 5 0 3 5 6 14 7 3 0 1 3 11 18 6

48HR FCST: 18 1 1 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 8 1 3 14 7 3 0 1 3 11 18 6 12 4 6


FORECASTER: Scully
24HR FCST: 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 15 2 3 3 5 6 14 7 3 0 1 3 11 18 6

48HR FCST: 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 3 5 6 14 7 3 0 1 3 11 18 6 12 4 6


FORECASTER: PERSISTENCE
24HR FCST: 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 15 2 3 3 5 6 14 7 3 0 1 3 11 18 6

48HR FCST: 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999 999
ERROR PTS: 3 5 6 14 7 3 0 1 3 11 18 6 12 4 6