Tuesday - February 9, 2016

Forecast Discussion


After the snow from last night, there still exists a small chance of snow showers as the day progresses. Any snow that does fall today won't add up to more than a coating. Temperatures for today will climb into the middle 30s,  but it won't last. As our current trough moves out, a new, stronger trough will take it's place. Starting Wednesday night and Thursday, temperatures will begin to decrease quickly through the weekend and into next week. This weekend will likely feature the coldest temperatures seen this winter, and lows will plummet below zero as the trough slides in bringing along gusty NW winds from Canada, which will begin starting Thursday.

The winds will usher in the chance of lake effect snow across Western and Central NY. The 850mb map has almost all of NY stuck with 90% humitidy through the weekend, which will aid in the lake effect chances with the colder air moving in along with the W and NW winds. The 500mb map has the eastern third of the country under a longwave trough for the next couple of days, and the stronger, shallower trough moving into the NE U.S. on Thursday, dropping 500mb heights to around 500m, which is fairly low for this area. As long as there is a trough over NY, there exists a possibility of lake effect snow, and that chance will stick around for at least the next few days. Nothing heavy will fall here, but in western NY there will likely be modestly higher accumulations. The vorticity map shows slight PVA in central NY on Thursday and Saturday, but the snowfall won't be huge and will likely be scattered in nature. 

Once the frigid weekend weather pulls away, next week will begin on a warming trend. It is too early to tell how warm it will get, but anything warmer than this weekend will be welcomed.

Last Updated By:  Adam Traficante on 02/09/2016 at 11:42 AM